The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had projected monsoon rainfall at around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for 2026, marking India's first below-normal monsoon forecast in three years, as El Nino was expected to intensify between June and August. By the end of the season, India had recorded its warmest August since records began in 1901, with the country's average temperature rising to 28.01 degrees Celsius, while August rainfall of 213.3 mm was the seventh-lowest recorded for the month since 2001, and the Southwest Monsoon's cumulative rainfall deficit reached 13.8%.

The deficit varied sharply by region: Southern Peninsular India recorded a cumulative rainfall deficiency of 24.2%, while East and Northeast India recorded an even larger deficiency of 25.7%. The IMD linked the below-normal rainfall to moderate-to-strong El Nino conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

For the RBI, a weak monsoon produces a supply-side food inflation shock at the same moment it weakens rural demand, caught between containing inflation and supporting growth; the central bank considered El Nino an upside risk to its projection of 4.6% CPI inflation for FY27, while holding the repo rate steady at 5.25%. Evidence from recent decades suggests El Nino alone has had a limited impact on aggregate GDP growth unless accompanied by severe drought, though a combined El Nino-plus-drought scenario may shave 20-65 basis points off growth; India's eventual outcome depends on domestic preparedness, regional rainfall distribution, and the speed of policy intervention, drawing on analysis referencing the WMO, IMD, and RBI.